Today begins the most interesting series in the playoffs in this round and this is probably the most unpredictable series also, where picking the winner is extremely hard. However, that doesn't stop a creation of excellent conditions to find a good spot for one of the teams today. It's the case today. I believe the Suns will win the series and beat the Spurs for the first time since Nash's arrival in Arizona, but for this game it's the Spurs, who have the better conditions to win.

This series ended 3-1 for the Suns in the regular season (1st time this happens in the Nash era), but most important was that the Suns won the last two games of the series, already with Shaq in the roster and their last win was really a statement, winning in San Antonio by 76-74. So, why do I think the Spurs will win when the momentum is on the Suns side? Well, my analysis starts right there. The Spurs aren't a normal team, I'm sure Greg Popovich isn't an average coach and the Spurs can take advantage of the big amount of confidence the Suns will bring for this game.

Looking for what has been said and who is predicting this series, all the comments I've read are just talking about how Shaq stopped Duncan, the way Duncan just shot 15-40 FG in the last two games with the Suns, etc... Everybody is turning their attention to this matchup, while I think there's an even more important matchup that I'll talk about it next.

Looking at the last game between the two teams, where the Suns won by 96-74 at San Antonio, besides the fact Duncan just shot 9-21 FG and Ginobili 3-12, the most interesting fact is that the team just tried 9 treys and most important they only put two in the basket (2-9 3pts). This showed a lack of confidence in their exterior game and it wasn't just in that game, as in the previous game against Portland they just shot 4-15 3pts and before they had 2-12 3pts against Utah. This 2-9 3pts was just the last proof how the Spurs was playing terrible from the 3pts line. However, the team in the last game of the regular season made a good game against Utah, which allowed them to recover all the lost confidence. In that game, the Spurs destroyed Utah by 109-80, in a game where the team shot 41-69 FG (59.4%) and 8-16 3pts (50%). This was in fact the game the Spurs needed to get back on track for the playoffs.

Now I'll talk about the X factor for this game, which will be the lethal weapon for the Spurs and who the Suns aren't expecting him to be so decisive: Tony Parker. However have you seen the last games of Parker in the regular season? Well, he's at the same level which gave him in the MVP in the finals last season. Against the Lakers, Parker made 20 points, 5 assists and 7 rebounds in 28 minutes. Against the Kings in 37 minutes, he made 32 pts and 11 assists and against Utah in 29 minutes, he made 24 points and 12 assists! Amazing! The total combined is 30-54 FG 55.5%! I remember that in the first game of the playoffs series between the Suns and the Spurs last season, Tony Parker also surprised everybody and scored 32 points. I expect him to do something similar in today's game.

This game also fits on a double revenge spot for the Spurs, which gives us to some fantastic trends like one that tells us that home teams who are coming from two losses in a row against the same opponent involving two good teams (60% to 75%), the home team has a record of 55-22 ATS in the last five seasons. Take the Spurs in here.

The Sixers receive the Cavs with both teams still fighting for something until the end of the regular season, especially the Cavs fighting to secure their home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs against Washington. Also the Sixers are fighting with Toronto for the 6th seed to avoid facing Detroit in the first round of the playoffs. Both teams aren't in a good mood, as the Cavs are yet to show any type of consistency and the Sixers after a great run and amazing results in the last couple of months are now a little ice cold. The team is 1-3 in their last four games and 3-5 in their last eight. So the scenario for this game for both teams isn't nice, but at the same time they really need to win today.

The Cavs now with Lebron physically not at 100% are playing a terrible offensive basketball. The last four games of the team went under, as the team can't create good opportunities to score. Also the %'s in these four games were terrible. 38.6% FG against Orlando, 45% FG against New Jersey, 42.7% against the Bulls and yesterday 37.8% FG against the lowly Miami. However the team can still survive to these games, as they have a good defense and that's why all these matches went under.

The Sixers as they haven't won games lately are also lacking confidence. They scored 76 points against Indiana and 93 points against the Wizards, with just 9 points in the fourth quarter of the game. This tells us that the team's confidence isn't the same anymore. Actually looking at the last game of the Sixers at Washington, the game ended with 109-93 with a line of 194,5 (going over that way), however looking of what happened in that game, just the 3pts shots of the Wizards were capable of taking down the good defense of the Sixers. The Wizards shot 12-22 3pts in that game, that gives a very good percentage of 54.5%. So we just need to know if the Cavs are capable to do the same, if they can't, we will have a very tough game based in the low post. And looking at the last games of the Cavs we see that they are ice cold from behind the 3 pts line: 26-75 in their last 5 games. That's 34.6% 3pts! Plus, if we look to their last 10 games we see that they are 26th in the league with 31.1% 3pts and I wasn't surprised when I saw that the Sixers are right close to them in the 29th position, with just 29.8% 3pts.

So with both teams being ice cold in the exterior shooting, I predict the offense will come from the interior zones, where both teams have pretty strong defenses. So, it will be hard for any of the teams to score above mid 90's tonight. I actually think the defeated team in here will barely score 80 pts. So, take the under in here.

The Hornets lost yesterday at LA against the Lakers by 107-104 and they are just half a game in front of the Lakers and with the loss they got in disadvantage in terms of a tie in the regular season, so this game is extremely important for the Hornets. They showed a lot of heart yesterday and this team is damn tough. They were down by 30 points, but they managed to comeback and made yesterday's game a ballgame and if they had won, it would have been the best comeback ever in the history of their franchise. The key moment of that game was the 1st quarter, where the Lakers outscored the Hornets by 39-20. What happened was that Paul and Chandler made their 2nd foul early in the quarter and they had to go to the bench, thanks to foul trouble. Chandler left the period with 7:36 to go and Paul with 3 min to go. When Paul left the game, the result was 14-26. When he re-entered the game a couple of minutes after, the result was already 20-42 (a partial of 6-16).

Well, the team reacted well exactly how I expect them to react today against the Kings. The Hornets are one of the best teams in the league in terms of reacting to a loss, and first of all they are 15-7 ATS when they are favored on road games. But that number becomes 8-1 ATS if they lost their previous game. And if it's a b2b game like this one, then they have a perfect record of 3-0 ATS.

Today they'll face the Kings, who have been the spoilers of this season lately and today certainly they will try to make another upset today, however looking at the matchups, there is an huge edge for the Hornets in a factor! Turnovers, which decide most games especially thanks to points off turnovers. The Hornets are 3rd in the league with just 11.4 TO/game and the Kings are second last with 15.3 TO/game. However if we just look to the last ten games, the Hornets become the best team in the league with just 9.7 TO/game and the Kings raise their number to 15.5 TO/game. Another curious fact is that the Hornets are the best team in the league in turnovers against teams with losing records, with just 10.7 TO/game, while the Kings are last in turnovers while facing teams with winning records with 15.5 TO/game. There's one of the factors which makes the Hornets a much better team than the Kings right now, especially when CP3 is in great shape and comes from a 15 pts and 17 ast performance and the Kings have nobody to stop him.

In the last time this scenario happened, the Hornets lost at home against Utah by 66-77 and in the following game they won at Minnesota by 122-90. In the last three games against sub .500 teams, they have only made 5, 5 and 6 TO/game! Amazing! The series is 1-1 with the home team winning the games, however when the Kings defeated the Hornets by 122-103, the team was at 100%. Bibby, Martin, Artest and Miller all shot extremely well. The ball movement of the Kings is something that barely exists and they need to have good %'s to win their games. In yesterday's game against Portland, they won by 103-86, but they made 18-16 A/TO! That's short for such a team like the Kings! The last time they faced a team like the Hornets, they were slaughtered at home against the Lakers by 92-114. In that game, they made 11 assists and 16 turnovers. Today I expect a deja vu of that game with the Hornets winning this one pretty easily. Take New Orleans in here.

I have to say that I don't like to go with huge spreads in the NBA like this one, but when it has value, I don't mind to break my rule and jump on it. That's what it happens in this game in my opinion, where we have two teams with different motivations for tonight's game. For an huge favorite to cover a large spread like this one against a slumping team, we just need motives that give them the motivation to play near their best. When that happens, the rest is just history. Well, Orlando has a record of 49-29 right now and they are one win away from the 50 wins and besides being the 3rd team in the East to reach it, it will be only the second run in the franchise history that the team will reach such high number of wins during a single season. And in my research in this game, I found that Van Gundy is interested in this mark:

"I think there's always a level of respect in this league for a 50-win team," said Coach Stan Van Gundy, who guided the Miami Heat to a 59-23 record in 2004-05. "You'll hear that term a lot -- 'They're a 50-win team.'

"[50 wins] sort of lifts you -- in people's mind -- out of the realm of mediocrity. So it'd be nice to have. I think our guys, quite honestly, want that. It's important to them right now and I think they really want to get that done."

So, I expect the Magic to compete at their best today against the Wolves. In their last game they slaughtered the Bulls by 32 points and they have a super trend which follows Orlando continues to be at 100%. Everytime they win at home this season, they also cover the spread (23-0-1 ATS).

The Wolves right now are in a middle of a slump and they have already lost their competitive spirit. The team is coming from six losses in a row and this time of the season, it's important to remind the position the Wolves have right now for the first for the draft pick. I remember the third worst record would mean a 15.6 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick when the lottery is held May 20. The Wolves still have a chance to catch Seattle for the second-worst record in the NBA, which would give them a 19.9 percent chance at the top pick. Miami is on track for the worst record, giving them a 25 percent chance. I guess everything is said about this subject. The Wolves in their six games as dogs by double digits points are 0-5-1 ATS, never being capable to cover the spread, showing that they easily give up from the game. Their best player Al Jefferson has been playing well this season, but his matchup today is terrible, as it is Dwight Howard.

In Minnesota, Orlando won by 111-103 and if Jefferson had 25 pts and 10 reb, Howard replied with 28 pts and 16 reb. Jefferson has shown some tiredness in these last games of the season. Al Jefferson has played more games and more minutes this season than in any of his previous years in the NBA — and he says he’s feeling it. Jefferson says he plans to work harder this summer to be ready for a long haul next season, with the goal of an even longer haul with the Wolves, in the playoffs. If we look to the last eight games of the Wolves, we see that only twice their opponents didn't shoot better than 50% FG. In the other six games, the minimum was 53% FG, showing that the team isn't giving their best effort right now. So, 12 points seems to be accessible for this game. Take Orlando in here.

Pick: 1 unit on 706 Orlando Magic (-12) @1.952 on Pinnacle

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As I've said in the preview, for me to go with Orlando against the Bulls, I would just need the team to be motivated the fact is they would rest some players or not. Well in my research I found some motives as they won't rest players, as they are actually fired up for today and ready to make the Bulls pay for their humiliation at New York last Sunday. Well, Orlando still has the objective of reaching 50 wins in this season, something they only did it with Shaq in 1996. The team is now 48-29 and I think they will only rest players when they reach those 50 wins in the regular season, which will most likely happen in the home game against Minnesota, which is the following game of Orlando after this one today.

But the defeat against the Knicks made Van Gundy really mad. Just look what he said after the game:

"There's no analysis. We stunk," Magic Coach Stan Van Gundy said. "On offense, we stunk. On defense, we stunk."

"It was our worst game of the year by far," Van Gundy fumed. "We had no energy. . . . We had absolutely nothing. We were awful. It was very embarrassing."

And some of the stars of the Magic were simply terrible on that game. Howard, coming off a four-point game in Cleveland, managed just 12 and was 3-of-10 at the free-throw line. Rashard Lewis also had a forgettable night, scoring just six points on 2-of-12 shooting -- 1-for-9 on 3-pointers. So, tonight I expect a bounce back by them tonight. The team is coming from two home losses in a row against the Spurs and the Hornets, which grows up their wish of a win at home today. In the only game with a similar scenario as this one, where the Magic had lost their last two home games, they defeated Denver at home by 109-98, in a game where they were favored by 6 points, covering the spread in that game. The key of this match will be the rebounds, where Orlando has been outrebounded in their last four games (Bucks, Hornets, Cavs, Knicks). But guess what? The Bulls are even worse, as they were also outrebounded in their last games and by ridiculous numbers: 33-45 vs Boston, 38-55 vs Cavs, 28-53 vs Wizards and yesterday 38-37 against the worst rebounding team in the league. So, even in the boards Orlando has the edge of this game on their side.

If we know look to some trends, I've two brutal trends who favor Orlando today. First of all the team when they win their home games is 22-0-1 ATS! Amazing! And my spreadsheet tells me to back teams like Orlando after suffering an upset loss by more than 10 pts and having 2 days off to rest. These teams are 45-13 ATS in the last five seasons. So, take Orlando in here.

Denver has been dominating this series, having slaughtering the poor Sonics. They are 3-0 against them with incredible wins by 120-103, 138-96 and 168-116. And with today's scenario it won't be different today. I've reads news about the Sonics and the team is now more concerned about having chances in next year's draft than in anything else. So it's not a surprise that they've lost their last five home games and always by a big margin. On the other side Kevin Durant in on a phase where every rookie passes. Too many games for him, a lot of intensiveness and this was shown in his game against Houston, where he shot 2-17 FG.

Denver lost yesterday against the Kings at home and so they will be fired up for this game. What's most impressing is that the Kings won the game with three starters missing. The team is in a crazy ride for the playoffs and after their home loss yesterday, there is no way they can lose focus in today's game. Kenyon Martin is back on the team and this team is a killer team against weaker opposition, they literally slaughter them. Seattle has been dreadful in the attack lately and today the offensive power of Denver will be too much for them. I remember Denver will play after the game of the Warriors have been played, so a possible loss of the Warriors will put them even more motivated for this game, but if Golden State wins today, this obligates Denver to win too, so this is a must win game for Denver in here. Take Denver.

I love the spot of the Bulls for today, as there are a group of factors which make me think that a spread of 3,5 points is too short for them tonight. In fact the Bulls are still alive, they still dream about the playoffs and the win at Cleveland last Thursday combined with the defeat of Atlanta yesterday allow the team to maintain some hope to reach the 8th place in the conference and their normal levels of motivation and combativeness. Today they face the Wizards, a match which will be a tremendous revenge game for them. The series is 1-1 right now and if you remember, the Bulls lost at home against the Wizards by 91-97, allowing their opponents a run of 18-0 and 22-1 in the 3rd quarter to grab a road win in that game. Surely this game is in the memory of all the staff of the Bulls and Chicago will try to make this game a payback.

Surprising was also the win of the Bulls at Cleveland by 101-98, in a game where they were down by 17 points but they rallied back, something that the Bulls were used to see their opponents doing to them and not the opposite. So, the team brings some momentum for this season. Larry Hughes made his best game as a member of the Bulls getting close of making a triple double - 25 pts 9 reb 9 ast. The Wizards have today a b2b game after having defeated Miami at home yesterday and I don't know if that's a coincidence or not but the team hasn't defended well in the two games Arenas has played after his comeback. They've allowed 54.8% FG against Milwaukee and 45.8% FG against Miami, which is a concerning number. Jamison is questionable for this game and without him the team loses a very important player in the paint. The Bulls have a good opportunity to get even closer to Atlanta tonight and this being a revenge game for them, I expect the Bulls to play well tonight, defeating the Wizards tonight and covering the handicap of 3,5 points, which is a small spread for this game. Take the Bulls in here.

It seems a little weird, but this game will begin the playoffs for Utah this season. I know it's still six games to the end of the regular season, but look at the schedule of Utah and the teams they are going to face: Spurs, Hornets, Dallas, Denver, Houston and Spurs again! Now you understand what I was talking about. On the other side the Spurs have already entered this spirit last Sunday and they had two games with amazing defensive performances against Houston and Golden State, only allowed 88 and 92 points. I remember that the 92 points scored by the Warriors, was the first game in a series of 37 games where the Warriors have always scored more than 100 points and so, it's easy to understand how well the Spurs defended in that game.

If we analyze the lines the bookies offered for those games, they were afraid and presented extremely low lines, just 175 points for the Spurs game against Houston and just 207 points against the Warriors. The result was two overs in those games. Also this game has an higher total than it should have, thanks to the fact that Utah is coming from five overs in a row, however those games were against Charlotte, Clippers, Wolves, Wizards (in the last game of a tiring road trip) and the Wolves again. Well these teams can't defend not even close at the level of the Spurs. I think the line of this game should be at 193/195, having in account that the last game between these two teams ended 97-97 with the line being 193,5 points. This team of Utah can also be pretty aggressive in the defense and we've seen that last season against the Rockets in the playoffs and the time where they have to be aggressive starts now. In this sequence of five overs in a row, the team scored in a single quarter a max of 42 points and the min of 30 points, something the Spurs won't allow and if they allow, they reduce the pace of the game in the following quarter of the game.

The Spurs will just make their 3rd game in 6 days, no back to back games and this allows them to execute their best defense and it's curious to see what Bruce Bowen said about the defense of the Spurs.

"We haven't yet had that defensive game that makes everybody say, 'Wow,'" Bowen said. "When we have a game without any defensive breakdowns, then you can cheer. But we haven't had that great defensive game, and it's because of the little intricacies; things like one guy not rotating, or being a step slow. Things like that."

For today I expect a real playoff game with both teams giving their max effort in the defense, as they know it's the only way to win games and later series in the playoffs. Take the under in here.

Just like I said in the preview, the Sonics will may have today their last chance to win a game at Seattle, as they will later this season play at home against teams way stronger than them. And being Seattle a young team they will surely be motivated to win today, knowing that they may be playing their last games in this city. But it looks there is still hope for the team to stay in the city and this will motivate the public even more to support the team today. Today they will face an accessible team and that won't be able to count with three players besides their long term injured players. Chris Kaman, Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley won't play and the Clippers will go to this game pretty short handed. Without these players the Clippers only have Corey Maggete as a reliable player in the attack, who comes from a terrible game against Dallas, shooting 3-15 FG.

This team of Seattle didn't have a great season, but there is a curious fact about this team. From the five games Seattle was home favored, they went 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU! This is the key for this game. Actually in one of these games it was against the Clippers, where they were favored by four points and won the game by 95-88. In that game Kaman had a monster exhibition with 19 pts and 14 boards, something it won't happen tonight as he is injured and out for this game. The Sonics are coming from three home losses in a row, but in all of them they were in the lead at HT or even at the end of the 3rd quarter, ending up losing the games at the end. Today the Clippers won't have this ability to recover after being down in the game. I expect a good win for the hungry young team of the Sonics today against a team who just prays nobody else gets injured today. Take the Sonics in here.

The Nets will receive the Sixers today in a game which will be tough, as it involves two teams fighting for a playoff spot. I have to say that I don't believe the Nets are going to the playoffs, as it's almost impossible. They are three games behind Atlanta and in the next four games, they will play on the road against Detroit, Toronto and Cleveland and also receive at home the Raptors, however what it's important in here is that the team believes they can still reach their objective and this is their last chance to reach it. Today they will face the Sixers, who even though had a fantastic month of March with impressive wins over some of the best teams in the league comes to this match with two losses in their last two games against Phoenix and Cleveland. The line for this game is at 204 points and it's where we can find the value, as this line is too high, mainly thanks to what the Nets have done lately.

The last three games of the Nets ended with 241, 238 and 214 points, that's a lot of points indeed, but they played against Indiana twice and against Phoenix, who played a run and gun game with the Nets. But we can't forget that the Nets played last week at Philadelphia in a game where the totals line was similar as this one and the game ended 91-87. So I have to wonder if the line isn't too high tonight?

The Nets in order to win lately need to shoot extremely well and actually in their last six wins, they have always shot better than 50% FG, but this team can't develop an organized offensive while facing a top defensive team like the Sixers. Philadelphia has only allowed their opponents to shoot better than 50% in four of their last nineteen matches (Orlando x2, Golden State and Phoenix). As I've said previously, the Sixers while facing teams with no big man in the frontcourt are very strong in the defense, as they are capable to concentrate all their defensive effort in the perimeter. It's only necessary to see that in the last game between these two teams, Vince Carter only shot 10-25 FG, Devin Harris 5-13 FG and Richard Jefferson 3-15 FG, in a total of 18-53 33.9% FG! For this game, the Sixers are coming from two losses in a row, so I don't believe they will want to enter the run and gun pace of the Nets. They will use their high pressuring defensive game and that's why I think this line of 204 points is just too high. Take the under in here.

Dallas plays today at LA against the Clippers, after having lost another game against a team with a positive record. The team is now 10-10 after the All Star break and with a funny trend. The team is 0-10 against teams with winning records and 10-0 against teams with losing records! If we look to the road games of Dallas during this span, the over is 6-0 when Dallas was the dog, but the under was 3-0-1 when Dallas was the away favorite. I believe this line is too high, mainly thanks to the recent games of both games. Dallas played at Denver and against the Warriors and both games went over. At the same time, the Clippers played against Utah and Memphis and also both games went over. So, I see this 190 points being too high and overvalued. Especially because Dallas won't play with a run and gun style like they were forced to play in their games against Denver and Golden State. I actually believe they will force their defensive end, at least that's how they have been playing against weaker teams after the All Star break. In this 10-0 record, Dallas has never allowed their opponents to shoot better than 50% FG, only allowing their opponents to shoot an average of 41.9% FG.

On the other side the Clippers defeated at home Memphis by 110-97, shooting 53.2% FG and that happened because Memphis was coming from a big win at LA against the Lakers and they tried to win the game with their offensive, completely neglecting their defense. The rookie Al Thornton scored 39 pts and shot 13-23 FG, a performance he won't obviously repeat tonight. Especially as the team at home against good defensive teams have ridiculous numbers. They scored 72 pts against Portland, 80 against Philadelphia, 73 against Detroit or 76 against Boston. Today Dallas, who will desperately need to win today, will make an A effort in their defense to avoid surprises. So, I doubt the Clippers will be able to get close to the barrier of the 90 points tonight. Take the under in here.